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THE BOARD · ELECTIONS

Elections

80 live questions in elections, read from Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs). Sort and filter below — every figure is what real-money traders currently imply.

WHERE THINGS STAND

The elections board spans 80 questions with an average probability of 45 across all markets, reflecting mixed confidence in outcomes. The sharpest mover is Mitch McConnell stepping down from the Senate, which fell sharply to roughly even odds, while most top questions—including J.D. Vance's path to the Republican nomination (a bit below even) and Democratic House control in 2026 (strongly favoured, around four-in-five)—have remained largely steady. Longer-shot outcomes dominate several markets: Putin leaving office by end-2026 sits at single-digit odds, as does Trump exiting the presidency before 2027, while Gavin Newsom's 2028 Democratic nomination bid is odds in the teens. These are implied probabilities from real-money prediction markets—information rather than forecasts.

80questions
45%average odds
$127.2Mtotal volume

BIGGEST MOVER (24H)

Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
48%▼ -21 pt

Polymarket price history · as of 2026-07-10

MOVING THIS WEEK

Rising ▲

  1. Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?17%▲ +13 pt
  2. Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?88%▲ +10 pt
  3. Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?82%▲ +4 pt
  4. President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?94%▲ +3 pt

Falling ▼

  1. Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?48%▼ -21 pt
  2. Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?79%▼ -6 pt
  3. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?28%▼ -5 pt
  4. Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?93%▼ -5 pt

80 questions

  1. Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?48%▼ -21 pt$275K
  2. Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?17%▲ +13 pt$198K
  3. Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?88%▲ +10 pt$158K
  4. Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?79%▼ -6 pt$165K
  5. Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?28%▼ -5 pt$3.5M
  6. Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?93%▼ -5 pt$88K
  7. Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?77%▼ -4 pt$157K
  8. Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?82%▲ +4 pt$92K
  9. President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?94%▲ +3 pt$264K
  10. Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?48%▲ +3 pt$165K
  11. Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?29%▲ +3 pt$131K
  12. Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?61%▼ -2 pt$199K
  13. Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?25%▼ -2 pt$105K
  14. Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?50%▼ -2 pt$83K
  15. Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?19%▲ +1 pt$26.4M
  16. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?61%▼ -1 pt$7.3M
  17. Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?27%▲ +1 pt$1.4M
  18. Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?40%▲ +1 pt$1.2M
  19. Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?95%▼ -1 pt$627K
  20. Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?64%▲ +1 pt$614K
  21. Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?96%▼ -1 pt$230K
  22. Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?9%▼ -1 pt$182K
  23. Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?55%▲ +1 pt$177K
  24. Trump declares election interference national emergency?22%▼ -1 pt$163K
  25. Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?16%▲ +1 pt$146K
  26. Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?62%▲ +1 pt$135K
  27. Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?7%▲ +1 pt$129K
  28. Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?9%▼ -1 pt$113K
  29. Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?24%▲ +1 pt$103K
  30. Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?94%▲ +1 pt$100K
  31. Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?97%▲ +1 pt$96K
  32. Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?92%▲ +1 pt$92K
  33. Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?81%▼ -1 pt$88K
  34. Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?73%▼ -1 pt$86K
  35. Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?21%▲ +1 pt$71K
  36. Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?30%▲ +1 pt$70K
  37. Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?9%— 0 pt$16.9M
  38. Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?20%— 0 pt$14.6M
  39. Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?41%— 0 pt$14.4M
  40. Trump out as President before 2027?8%— 0 pt$9.8M
  41. Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?55%— 0 pt$5.6M
  42. Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?84%— 0 pt$4.5M
  43. Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?10%— 0 pt$2.6M
  44. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House44%— 0 pt$2.1M
  45. Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?94%— 0 pt$1.7M
  46. Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?54%— 0 pt$1.4M
  47. Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?3%— 0 pt$962K
  48. Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?59%— 0 pt$833K
  49. Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?61%— 0 pt$661K
  50. Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?4%— 0 pt$557K
  51. Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?2%— 0 pt$495K
  52. Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?91%— 0 pt$491K
  53. Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?21%— 0 pt$470K
  54. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?10%— 0 pt$351K
  55. Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?57%— 0 pt$321K
  56. Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?80%— 0 pt$254K
  57. Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?88%— 0 pt$251K
  58. Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?9%— 0 pt$221K
  59. Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?3%— 0 pt$209K
  60. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?96%— 0 pt$196K
  61. Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?6%— 0 pt$162K
  62. Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?2%— 0 pt$162K
  63. Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?6%— 0 pt$161K
  64. Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?23%— 0 pt$155K
  65. Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?96%— 0 pt$151K
  66. Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?94%— 0 pt$137K
  67. Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?11%— 0 pt$130K
  68. Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?8%— 0 pt$112K
  69. Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?75%— 0 pt$108K
  70. Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?3%— 0 pt$104K
  71. Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?2%— 0 pt$94K
  72. Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?50%— 0 pt$91K
  73. Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?8%— 0 pt$90K
  74. Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?4%— 0 pt$90K
  75. Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?3%— 0 pt$82K
  76. Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?49%— 0 pt$81K
  77. Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?2%— 0 pt$79K
  78. Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?82%— 0 pt$79K
  79. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?97%— 0 pt$76K
  80. Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?69%— 0 pt$71K

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Source: Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs) · as of 2026-07-10. Odds are implied probabilities from prediction markets, shown as information — never advice.