Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
24%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at roughly one-in-four odds, having rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day. This low probability reflects skepticism that an election announcement will come within the roughly two-year window, though recent upward movement suggests some shift in expectations toward a scheduled vote becoming more likely.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Venezuela's next presidential election is officially scheduled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, with the election itself set to occur before 2030. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 24% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +3 pt |
| Market volume | $103K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement of a scheduled election date would resolve this immediately to Yes; the absence of any such announcement through the end of 2026 would resolve it to No.
- Political developments or statements from Venezuelan authorities about electoral timelines could influence odds, though the resolution hinges on a formal scheduling announcement rather than speculation or plans.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
