Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
9%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this at single-digit, unlikely odds, suggesting strong doubt that Ukraine will hold elections within the specified window. The odds have moved down 4 points over the past week, indicating growing skepticism about the likelihood of elections by year-end 2026, though unchanged over the past 24 hours. At this level, the market is treating an election in that timeframe as a long shot.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine holds national elections for parliament and/or presidency between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026. It resolves No if no such elections occur by the deadline.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 9% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $221K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Changes in Ukraine's political or security situation could shift expectations about when elections become feasible.
- Any official announcement of a scheduled election date would be the clearest signal, though actually holding the election is required for resolution—not just scheduling it.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
