Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at a remote chance, where it has remained unchanged over the past day and stable over the past week. At this level, the market is assigning a very low probability to an official US acquisition of Greenland within the timeframe, reflecting the substantial political and diplomatic barriers to such a transfer of territory from Denmark.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $34.7M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official US government announcement of Greenland sovereignty would be required to resolve Yes—absent such a statement, the market defaults to No.
- Roughly two years remain until the December 2026 deadline; significant geopolitical or diplomatic shifts could alter pricing, though the current odds suggest most market participants view this as highly unlikely.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
