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THE BOARD · GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitics

80 live questions in geopolitics, read from Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs). Sort and filter below — every figure is what real-money traders currently imply.

WHERE THINGS STAND

The geopolitics board tracks 80 questions with an average probability of about a fifth across all topics. The biggest mover is whether Israel will strike 4 countries in 2026, which has risen sharply to roughly even odds—a striking shift in sentiment. Among high-volume questions, U.S. military action against Iran and an Iranian leadership change both sit at odds in the teens and have risen slightly, while most scenarios involving Taiwan, Greenland acquisition, or regime collapse remain remote chances with little recent movement; by contrast, Mojtaba Khamenei remaining head of state by end-2026 is strongly favoured at around four-in-five odds. These figures reflect real-money market pricing and should be read as information, not forecasts.

80questions
20%average odds
$221.1Mtotal volume

BIGGEST MOVER (24H)

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
53%▲ +9 pt

Polymarket price history · as of 2026-07-10

MOVING THIS WEEK

Rising ▲

  1. Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?53%▲ +9 pt
  2. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?49%▲ +8 pt
  3. Netanyahu out by end of 2026?38%▲ +7 pt
  4. Israel closes its airspace by July 31?16%▲ +4 pt

Falling ▼

  1. Iran full airspace closure by August 31?28%▼ -7 pt
  2. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?6%▼ -5 pt
  3. Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?56%▼ -4 pt
  4. China x Philippines military clash before 2027?10%▼ -2 pt

80 questions

  1. Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?53%▲ +9 pt$1.2M
  2. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?49%▲ +8 pt$854K
  3. Netanyahu out by end of 2026?38%▲ +7 pt$1.9M
  4. Iran full airspace closure by August 31?28%▼ -7 pt$251K
  5. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?6%▼ -5 pt$646K
  6. Israel closes its airspace by July 31?16%▲ +4 pt$1.1M
  7. US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?56%▲ +4 pt$372K
  8. Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?56%▼ -4 pt$279K
  9. U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?9%▲ +4 pt$182K
  10. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?6%▲ +2 pt$2.8M
  11. China x Philippines military clash before 2027?10%▼ -2 pt$1.3M
  12. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?45%▼ -2 pt$346K
  13. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?14%▲ +2 pt$259K
  14. Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?45%▼ -2 pt$244K
  15. Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?44%▲ +2 pt$192K
  16. Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?28%▲ +2 pt$192K
  17. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?17%▲ +1 pt$40.3M
  18. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?8%▼ -1 pt$21.5M
  19. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?8%▲ +1 pt$10.4M
  20. Iran leadership change by December 31?17%▲ +1 pt$3.2M
  21. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?41%▲ +1 pt$2.0M
  22. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?14%▲ +1 pt$2.0M
  23. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?4%▼ -1 pt$773K
  24. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?18%▲ +1 pt$564K
  25. Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?4%▼ -1 pt$420K
  26. Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?60%▼ -1 pt$363K
  27. Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?10%▲ +1 pt$310K
  28. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?10%▲ +1 pt$305K
  29. China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?8%▼ -1 pt$192K
  30. Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?7%▼ -1 pt$167K
  31. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%— 0 pt$38.3M
  32. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?4%— 0 pt$34.7M
  33. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?4%— 0 pt$11.6M
  34. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?13%— 0 pt$3.1M
  35. Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?83%— 0 pt$3.0M
  36. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?22%— 0 pt$2.4M
  37. Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?79%— 0 pt$2.1M
  38. Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?12%— 0 pt$2.0M
  39. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?6%— 0 pt$1.9M
  40. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?12%— 0 pt$1.8M
  41. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?11%— 0 pt$1.8M
  42. Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?12%— 0 pt$1.7M
  43. Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?5%— 0 pt$1.4M
  44. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?23%— 0 pt$1.3M
  45. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?5%— 0 pt$1.3M
  46. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?3%— 0 pt$1.2M
  47. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?5%— 0 pt$1.2M
  48. Iran Nuke before 2027?6%— 0 pt$1.1M
  49. Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?2%— 0 pt$1.1M
  50. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?6%— 0 pt$1.0M
  51. Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?3%— 0 pt$1.0M
  52. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?93%— 0 pt$927K
  53. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?2%— 0 pt$883K
  54. China x Japan military clash before 2027?7%— 0 pt$861K
  55. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?10%— 0 pt$641K
  56. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?6%— 0 pt$634K
  57. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?3%— 0 pt$612K
  58. Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay13%— 0 pt$541K
  59. Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?2%— 0 pt$537K
  60. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?38%— 0 pt$526K
  61. Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?9%— 0 pt$472K
  62. Will Venezuela become 51st state?3%— 0 pt$372K
  63. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?4%— 0 pt$369K
  64. Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?10%— 0 pt$336K
  65. Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?9%— 0 pt$326K
  66. Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?4%— 0 pt$313K
  67. Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?9%— 0 pt$267K
  68. Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?19%— 0 pt$258K
  69. Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?3%— 0 pt$246K
  70. Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?87%— 0 pt$240K
  71. Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?6%— 0 pt$229K
  72. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?27%— 0 pt$228K
  73. Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?17%— 0 pt$225K
  74. Iran nuclear test before 2027?5%— 0 pt$221K
  75. Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?24%— 0 pt$210K
  76. Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?3%— 0 pt$199K
  77. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?22%— 0 pt$199K
  78. Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?6%— 0 pt$187K
  79. Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?80%— 0 pt$177K
  80. Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?3%— 0 pt$161K

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Source: Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs) · as of 2026-07-10. Odds are implied probabilities from prediction markets, shown as information — never advice.