THE BOARD · GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitics

80 live questions in geopolitics, read from Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs). Sort and filter below — every figure is what real-money traders currently imply.

80questions
19%average odds
$219.2Mtotal volume

BIGGEST MOVER (24H)

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
31%▲ +24 pt

Polymarket price history · as of 2026-07-07

80 questions

  1. Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?31%▲ +24 pt$519K
  2. US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?59%▼ -14 pt$655K
  3. Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?31%▲ +11 pt$188K
  4. US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?59%▼ -10 pt$224K
  5. Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?53%▲ +7 pt$1.2M
  6. Iran full airspace closure by August 31?25%▲ +7 pt$170K
  7. Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?59%▼ -5 pt$351K
  8. Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?51%▲ +4 pt$166K
  9. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?43%▼ -3 pt$462K
  10. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?14%▲ +2 pt$39.6M
  11. Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?13%▼ -2 pt$2.0M
  12. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?42%▲ +2 pt$2.0M
  13. Israel closes its airspace by July 31?8%▲ +2 pt$880K
  14. Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?82%▲ +2 pt$176K
  15. Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?6%▼ -1 pt$10.4M
  16. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?14%▼ -1 pt$3.0M
  17. Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?84%▲ +1 pt$3.0M
  18. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?5%▼ -1 pt$2.8M
  19. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?21%▲ +1 pt$2.4M
  20. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?16%▼ -1 pt$1.9M
  21. Netanyahu out by end of 2026?38%▼ -1 pt$1.8M
  22. China x Philippines military clash before 2027?14%▲ +1 pt$1.3M
  23. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?24%▼ -1 pt$1.3M
  24. Iran Nuke before 2027?5%▲ +1 pt$1.1M
  25. Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?10%▼ -1 pt$638K
  26. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?18%▲ +1 pt$548K
  27. Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?2%▼ -1 pt$517K
  28. Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?3%▲ +1 pt$502K
  29. Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?46%▼ -1 pt$335K
  30. Will Russia invade another country in 2026?9%▲ +1 pt$296K
  31. Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?8%▼ -1 pt$264K
  32. Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?16%▼ -1 pt$224K
  33. Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?25%▲ +1 pt$209K
  34. Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?10%▲ +1 pt$187K
  35. Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?28%▼ -1 pt$173K
  36. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?4%— 0 pt$38.1M
  37. Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?4%— 0 pt$34.6M
  38. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?7%— 0 pt$21.3M
  39. Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?4%— 0 pt$11.6M
  40. Iran leadership change by December 31?16%— 0 pt$3.1M
  41. Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?79%— 0 pt$2.1M
  42. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?6%— 0 pt$1.9M
  43. US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?13%— 0 pt$1.8M
  44. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?11%— 0 pt$1.7M
  45. Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?12%— 0 pt$1.7M
  46. Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?5%— 0 pt$1.4M
  47. Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?2%— 0 pt$1.3M
  48. Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?6%— 0 pt$1.3M
  49. Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?4%— 0 pt$1.2M
  50. Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?4%— 0 pt$1.2M
  51. Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?2%— 0 pt$1.1M
  52. US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?6%— 0 pt$1.0M
  53. Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?3%— 0 pt$1.0M
  54. Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?94%— 0 pt$879K
  55. Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?2%— 0 pt$872K
  56. China x Japan military clash before 2027?7%— 0 pt$860K
  57. Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?7%— 0 pt$642K
  58. Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?6%— 0 pt$620K
  59. US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?3%— 0 pt$612K
  60. Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay13%— 0 pt$540K
  61. Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?9%— 0 pt$471K
  62. Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?3%— 0 pt$419K
  63. Will Venezuela become 51st state?3%— 0 pt$371K
  64. Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?11%— 0 pt$334K
  65. Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?10%— 0 pt$322K
  66. Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?7%— 0 pt$272K
  67. Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?19%— 0 pt$255K
  68. Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?4%— 0 pt$253K
  69. Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?4%— 0 pt$246K
  70. Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?30%— 0 pt$245K
  71. Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?9%— 0 pt$245K
  72. Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?89%— 0 pt$233K
  73. Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?6%— 0 pt$229K
  74. Iran nuclear test before 2027?5%— 0 pt$221K
  75. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?21%— 0 pt$197K
  76. China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?8%— 0 pt$191K
  77. U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?10%— 0 pt$182K
  78. Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?2%— 0 pt$167K
  79. Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?8%— 0 pt$163K
  80. Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?3%— 0 pt$161K

Source: Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs) · as of 2026-07-07. Odds are implied probabilities from prediction markets, shown as information — never advice.