Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market carries single-digit, unlikely odds of about 6%, and has remained unchanged over the past week. This pricing reflects a view that such an entry is a low-probability event over the roughly two-year window; the flat recent movement suggests no major news has shifted market expectations in either direction.
How this market resolves
The market resolves Yes if Reza Pahlavi physically enters Iran's terrestrial territory at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $1.9M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- A confirmed physical entry into Iran would immediately resolve the question Yes; similarly, any explicit bar on entry or statement foreclosing the possibility would clarify the trajectory.
- Two years remain until the December 31, 2026 deadline, leaving substantial time for geopolitical shifts or policy changes to alter the likelihood.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
