Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
8%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting skepticism that Iran's regime will fall within the next two years. Odds fell slightly over the past day, suggesting a marginal shift toward viewing regime change as even less probable in the near term. The low probability reflects the substantial institutional entrenchment and security apparatus of the Iranian state.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 8% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $21.5M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major political upheaval or widespread unrest that substantially weakens regime control could shift sentiment, though the deadline leaves limited runway for such events to solidify into a regime change.
- Clarity on what constitutes 'ceases to govern' will ultimately matter for resolution; ambiguous transition scenarios could complicate settlement.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
