Science

WHERE THINGS STAND

The science board shows a scatter of speculative long-shots balanced against a couple of near-even bets on SpaceX milestones. Questions on pandemic risks—Hantavirus, Ebola, and novel pathogens in 2026—sit at remote-chance odds and have barely moved, while biotech and space-agency outcomes cluster in the teens: UNRWA's Nobel Peace Prize shot fell slightly, and the Doge-1 lunar mission and Retatrutide FDA approval both hold odds in the teens unchanged. The sharpest moves came on SpaceX questions: the 160–179 launches target fell sharply to roughly one-in-four odds, while the query on whether 5–6 Starship launches will successfully reach space rose sharply to roughly even odds. Two separate Starship questions—full reusability before 2027 and successful 2026 flight rate—now both sit at roughly even odds and edged upward. The average probability across the 11 questions is about one-in-six, reflecting the prevalence of low-probability disaster and breakthrough scenarios; these are market-implied odds only.