Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
11%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether the UN's Palestinian refugee agency will receive the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with current odds suggesting it's unlikely but not dismissable.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 11% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $2.0M |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-10 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.