Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
11%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
At odds in the teens (unlikely), the market prices UNRWA's chance of winning at a low level, reflecting the competitive nature of the Nobel Peace Prize and the large field of potential recipients globally. The odds fell slightly (-1 pts) over the past day, suggesting modest recent skepticism, though the broader week showed no net movement.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if UNRWA is announced as the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on or before October 10, 2026. If UNRWA shares the prize with other recipients, it still resolves Yes.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 11% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $2.0M |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-10 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The Nobel Committee's announcement in October 2026 will directly settle the market; no interim events will affect the outcome.
- With eight months until the resolution date, there is time for geopolitical developments or shifts in international prominence to move odds, though the prize itself is awarded on a single date.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
