THE BOARD · CLIMATE
Climate
4 live questions in climate, read from Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs). Sort and filter below — every figure is what real-money traders currently imply.
WHERE THINGS STAND
Climate questions on the board span temperature records and extreme weather, with an average implied probability around the midpoint. The strongest conviction centres on whether any month of 2026 will set a heat record—strongly favoured, around four-in-five odds, and rose sharply in the past day. Whether 2026 becomes the second-hottest year on record is favoured but fell sharply, while the prospect of a Category 4 hurricane landfall before 2027 sits at roughly one-in-four odds after a sharp drop. A Category 5 landfall remains in the teens and unlikely, though it rose slightly. These are real-money market probabilities and reflect traders' current views rather than forecasts.
BIGGEST MOVER (24H)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?MOVING THIS WEEK
4 questions
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?23%▼ -4 pt$334K
- Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?80%▲ +4 pt$144K
- Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?64%▼ -3 pt$352K
- Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?17%▲ +1 pt$138K
EXPLORE OTHER TOPICS
Source: Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs) · as of 2026-07-10. Odds are implied probabilities from prediction markets, shown as information — never advice.