Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
17%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this event at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a roughly 17% chance of a Category 5 hurricane making US landfall within the next two years. Implied probability rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past week, suggesting modest upward movement in perceived risk, though the level remains a long shot.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if any hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher makes landfall in the US (its center crosses the coastline) before January 1, 2027. It resolves No if no such hurricane makes landfall by that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 17% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $138K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Active hurricane seasons or any Category 5 formation in the Atlantic basin could shift sentiment, though actual US landfall is the triggering condition.
- The deadline of December 31, 2026 leaves about two hurricane seasons to run; any major storms that nearly or definitively make landfall would move odds sharply.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
