Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
9%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether the unemployment rate will climb to 5% or higher at any point during 2026; current odds suggest the labor market is expected to remain relatively strong.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 9% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -13 pt |
| Market volume | $119K |
| Resolves by | 2026-01-10 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.