Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
13%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting broad expectation that unemployment will stay below 5.0% throughout 2026. The probability moved up slightly over the past week, though it remained unchanged over the past day, suggesting modest concern about potential economic softening but no recent shift in near-term sentiment.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an Employment Situation Report) reaches 5.0% or higher for any reference month in 2026; otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 13% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $120K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Monthly BLS employment reports throughout 2026 will be the sole determinant; any single month at or above 5.0% triggers a Yes resolution.
- Economic data and Fed policy decisions in late 2025 and early 2026 could shift expectations about joblessness, though the market has substantial time to incorporate new information before any 2026 reference month.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
