Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
4%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at a remote chance, reflecting deep skepticism about such a large move within the timeframe. The odds have remained unchanged over the past week, suggesting little new information has shifted trader views on whether Bitcoin will reach this level by year-end 2026.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Bitcoin's price reaches $150k or higher on any 1-minute candle (at the high) on Binance BTC/USDT by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves No on January 1, 2027.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 4% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $2.6M |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-01 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major Bitcoin price movements could shift the odds if the asset approaches or retreats from the threshold as the resolution date nears.
- Thin time until the December 31, 2026 deadline means large directional moves in the underlying asset would be needed to materially change the probability.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
