Iran leadership change by December 31?
17%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a low near-term probability of leadership change. Sentiment has rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day, suggesting modest uptick in the perceived risk of such a transition, though the overall level remains a long shot.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before December 31, 2026—through removal from power, detention, or loss of position. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 17% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $3.2M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major political or security events within Iran could shift expectations about regime stability and succession dynamics.
- Over two years remain until the December 2026 deadline, leaving substantial time for odds to drift if credible reporting emerges about the health or political position of the current leader.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
