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THE BOARD · ECONOMY

Economy

90 live questions in economy, read from Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs). Sort and filter below — every figure is what real-money traders currently imply.

WHERE THINGS STAND

The economy board spans 90 questions with an average odds level of roughly four-in-ten across all topics. Major interest centres on Federal Reserve policy: traders are assigning strongly favoured odds—around four-in-five—both to no rate change after July 2026 and to no cuts throughout 2026, though both have edged down slightly in the past day; a separate question on a 2026 rate hike sits at roughly even odds and has also fallen slightly. Cryptocurrency questions dominate by volume, with Bitcoin above $62,000 by mid-July now heavily favoured and near-certain after a sharp rise, while bets on NVIDIA becoming the world's largest company by market cap are also heavily favoured and near-certain, edging up slightly. Recession risk by end-2026 remains at odds in the teens, and most longer-term crypto targets—Bitcoin hitting $150k or a new all-time high by year-end—carry single-digit or remote odds. These are live-market probabilities and reflect traders' current positioning, not forecasts.

90questions
38%average odds
$52.7Mtotal volume

BIGGEST MOVER (24H)

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 11?
98%▲ +28 pt

Polymarket price history · as of 2026-07-10

MOVING THIS WEEK

Rising ▲

  1. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 11?98%▲ +28 pt
  2. Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?84%▲ +18 pt
  3. Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?57%▲ +16 pt
  4. Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?89%▲ +5 pt

Falling ▼

  1. Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?22%▼ -5 pt
  2. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?82%▼ -4 pt
  3. Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?82%▼ -3 pt
  4. Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?8%▼ -3 pt

90 questions

  1. Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 11?98%▲ +28 pt$71K
  2. Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?84%▲ +18 pt$519K
  3. Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?57%▲ +16 pt$134K
  4. Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?89%▲ +5 pt$943K
  5. Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 6-12?11%▲ +5 pt$126K
  6. Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?66%▲ +5 pt$108K
  7. Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch?78%▲ +5 pt$88K
  8. Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?77%▲ +5 pt$79K
  9. Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?22%▼ -5 pt$78K
  10. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?82%▼ -4 pt$12.9M
  11. Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?88%▲ +4 pt$211K
  12. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?36%▲ +3 pt$416K
  13. Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?82%▼ -3 pt$182K
  14. Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?8%▼ -3 pt$171K
  15. Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?52%▼ -3 pt$97K
  16. Will Ethereum reach $1,900 July 6-12?5%▲ +3 pt$87K
  17. Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?18%▲ +3 pt$83K
  18. Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?66%▼ -2 pt$1.3M
  19. Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?19%▼ -2 pt$312K
  20. Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?67%▼ -2 pt$180K
  21. Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?38%▼ -2 pt$140K
  22. Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?11%▲ +2 pt$110K
  23. Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?25%▼ -2 pt$83K
  24. Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?27%▼ -2 pt$78K
  25. Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?2%▼ -2 pt$68K
  26. Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?78%▼ -1 pt$5.9M
  27. Fed rate hike in 2026?52%▼ -1 pt$3.7M
  28. Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?53%▲ +1 pt$1.5M
  29. Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?67%▲ +1 pt$769K
  30. Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?88%▲ +1 pt$509K
  31. Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?22%▼ -1 pt$424K
  32. Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?56%▼ -1 pt$418K
  33. Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV8113%▼ -1 pt$279K
  34. Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?69%▼ -1 pt$274K
  35. Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?26%▼ -1 pt$265K
  36. Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?64%▼ -1 pt$238K
  37. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?22%▲ +1 pt$221K
  38. GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?98%▲ +1 pt$200K
  39. Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?23%▼ -1 pt$184K
  40. Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?66%▼ -1 pt$170K
  41. Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?25%▼ -1 pt$166K
  42. Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?80%▼ -1 pt$155K
  43. Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?40%▲ +1 pt$131K
  44. Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?49%▲ +1 pt$111K
  45. Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?38%▲ +1 pt$101K
  46. Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026?23%▲ +1 pt$98K
  47. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?21%▲ +1 pt$83K
  48. Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?57%▼ -1 pt$79K
  49. Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?19%▼ -1 pt$76K
  50. Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch?4%▲ +1 pt$74K
  51. Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?12%▲ +1 pt$72K
  52. Record crypto liquidation in 2026?8%▲ +1 pt$70K
  53. Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?29%▲ +1 pt$67K
  54. Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?6%— 0 pt$4.4M
  55. Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?4%— 0 pt$2.6M
  56. US recession by end of 2026?10%— 0 pt$1.7M
  57. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?5%— 0 pt$1.4M
  58. Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?22%— 0 pt$630K
  59. Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?8%— 0 pt$586K
  60. Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?5%— 0 pt$544K
  61. Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?92%— 0 pt$457K
  62. Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?74%— 0 pt$431K
  63. Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?10%— 0 pt$368K
  64. Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?24%— 0 pt$353K
  65. Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 202617%— 0 pt$336K
  66. StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?19%— 0 pt$333K
  67. Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?12%— 0 pt$321K
  68. Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?71%— 0 pt$318K
  69. Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?14%— 0 pt$257K
  70. Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?27%— 0 pt$245K
  71. Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?48%— 0 pt$235K
  72. Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?47%— 0 pt$214K
  73. Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?5%— 0 pt$192K
  74. Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?18%— 0 pt$179K
  75. Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?60%— 0 pt$149K
  76. Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?72%— 0 pt$142K
  77. Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?21%— 0 pt$134K
  78. Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?2%— 0 pt$124K
  79. Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?7%— 0 pt$120K
  80. Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?13%— 0 pt$120K
  81. Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?2%— 0 pt$116K
  82. Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?19%— 0 pt$114K
  83. Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?27%— 0 pt$111K
  84. Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?57%— 0 pt$110K
  85. OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?85%— 0 pt$103K
  86. Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?48%— 0 pt$102K
  87. Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?2%— 0 pt$80K
  88. Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?36%— 0 pt$73K
  89. Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026?9%— 0 pt$69K
  90. Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?55%— 0 pt$67K

EXPLORE OTHER TOPICS

Source: Polymarket (public Gamma + CLOB APIs) · as of 2026-07-10. Odds are implied probabilities from prediction markets, shown as information — never advice.