Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?
49%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently shows roughly even odds that inflation will land at 3.8% for the 12-month period ending June 2026. Odds rose slightly over the past day, suggesting a modest uptick in confidence around this specific inflation level. A 49% implied probability indicates the market sees this outcome as a coin-flip scenario, neither favored nor unlikely.
How this market resolves
This market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index ending in June 2026 (before seasonal adjustment) equals exactly 3.8%. It settles by July 15, 2026, based on the official BLS monthly report.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 49% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $111K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-15 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- BLS will release the June 2026 CPI report by mid-July; that single official figure determines the outcome with no further discretion.
- Inflation readings between now and June 2026 will shape expectations; any significant economic shifts or monetary policy changes could move odds before the resolution date.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
