**Market Summary, July 10**
Crypto markets dominated overnight trading. Bitcoin surged to 98% probability of closing above $62,000 on July 11 (+28 points), while the odds of it reaching $65,000 sometime in July climbed to 84% (+18 points). Ethereum followed suit, with traders pricing a 57% chance of hitting $1,900 this month (+16 points). In other movers, France's odds of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup final rose to 67% (+14 points), and Miami Marlins bettors were bullish on an ABS success-rate title, jumping that question to 33% (+31 points)—the day's largest single shift.
On the political side, McConnell stepping down from the Senate before his term ends fell sharply to 48% (-21 points), reversing recent momentum. OpenAI's valuation crossing $900B by year-end eased to 73% (-20 points) after a brief rally. A minor mover: Claudio Tapia's departure as AFA President by July 19 ticked up to just 17% (+13 points), still a long-shot outcome.
The movers behind it
- Will the Miami Marlins have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?33%▲ +31 ptculture
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 11?98%▲ +28 pteconomy
- Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?48%▼ -21 ptelections
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?73%▼ -20 ptai-tech
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?84%▲ +18 pteconomy
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?57%▲ +16 pteconomy
- Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?67%▲ +14 ptculture
- Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?17%▲ +13 ptelections