Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
75%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
Argentina is strongly favoured, around four-in-five to reach the semifinals. The odds rose slightly over the past day, suggesting modest confidence in their progression prospects. At this level, the market is pricing Argentina as a strong contender likely to progress from their group and quarterfinal rounds.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Argentina advances to the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by July 13, 2026. It resolves No if Argentina is mathematically eliminated from reaching the semifinals or if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 25, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 75% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +10 pt |
| Market volume | $526K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-13 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Group-stage and knockout results between now and July will directly determine whether Argentina qualifies or faces mathematical elimination.
- Tournament disruptions or cancellations after July 25, 2026 would also trigger resolution; limited time remains before the tournament's stated cutoff.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.