Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome as a remote chance at 2%. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day and drifted down slightly over the week, suggesting modest skepticism about whether the tournament will see that many failed penalty conversions. A 2% implied probability reflects a long-shot scenario.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if 10 or more penalty kicks are missed or saved (rather than scored) during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, counting only those taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time. It resolves by July 20, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $141K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-20 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The penalty count depends on how many matches go to penalty situations and the conversion rates of the teams involved—both unpredictable in advance.
- With over three years until the tournament closes, market pricing may shift as historical penalty data or team rosters become clearer, though thin participation at this distance limits how far odds can move.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
