Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
78%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The outcome is strongly favoured, around four-in-five, indicating the market sees no cuts as the base case for 2026 monetary policy. Odds fell slightly over the past day, suggesting marginal shifts toward expecting at least one cut, though the seven-day trend was flat overall. At this level, the market is pricing a scenario where the Fed maintains rates steady or only raises them across the full year.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts of 25 basis points during 2026, including any cuts at the December meeting or emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings. It settles on December 31, 2026, based on the Fed's actual cutting activity throughout that year.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 78% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $5.9M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Fed statements and economic data releases in 2026 would move odds as they change expectations about inflation and growth.
- Any emergency rate cut or unexpected policy shift would immediately resolve the market and settle the question.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
