Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
47%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this scenario at roughly even odds, suggesting roughly equal probability of a rate hike occurring during that window. The price has remained unchanged over the past day, though it has moved 4 points over the past week, indicating modest recent shifts in how traders assess the likelihood of Fed action by that meeting.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve raises its target federal funds rate at any point between December 16, 2025 and the conclusion of the October 2026 FOMC meeting (inclusive). It resolves No otherwise, by December 9, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 47% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +4 pt |
| Market volume | $214K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-09 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Economic data releases and inflation trends between now and October 2026 could shift expectations about Fed policy direction.
- Official Fed communications or economic surprises late in the window could move odds as the October meeting approaches.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
