Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
42%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
Markets see roughly even odds the Fed will raise rates before October 2026, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and economic conditions over the next year.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 42% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $123K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-09 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.