Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
22%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this at roughly one-in-four odds, suggesting traders see a low but meaningful chance of a rate cut during this window. The probability rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day, indicating modest recent shift toward Yes, though the 7-day move of +2 points shows the needle has drifted only gradually. At this level, the market is pricing in substantial skepticism that the Fed will ease rates in the latter half of 2026.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve lowers the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at any point between December 16, 2025 and the end of the December 2026 FOMC meeting (scheduled for December 8–9, 2026). It resolves No otherwise.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 22% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $221K |
| Resolves by | no fixed close date |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Economic data between now and December 2026 — inflation trends, employment, and growth — will shape Fed expectations; a major shift in either direction would move odds materially.
- Any FOMC communications or chair remarks about the policy path could trigger repricing, especially as the December 2026 meeting approaches.
- The lack of a fixed resolution deadline means the market will settle only after the December 2026 meeting concludes or by early January 2027 at the latest.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
