Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
56%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome as a slight favourite, just over even, implying roughly even odds with a modest lean toward no rate change. The implied probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest recent conviction toward a rate adjustment instead. This level reflects genuine uncertainty about the Fed's stance nearly two years out, with the market treating a hold and a move as roughly competitive outcomes.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve's September 2026 FOMC meeting results in no change to the upper bound of the target federal funds range, and No if there is any change. It settles by September 16, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 56% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -12 pt |
| Market volume | $418K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-16 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Fed communications and economic data between now and September 2026 will be the primary driver; any official guidance on rate expectations would shift these odds sharply.
- With more than two years until resolution, the odds have substantial time and room to drift as new information emerges about inflation, employment, and growth.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
