US recession by end of 2026?
10%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices a U.S. recession by end of 2026 at odds in the teens (unlikely), with no movement over the past week. This implies traders currently see recession as a relatively low-probability outcome over the next two years, though not negligible.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the U.S. experiences two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, annualized) between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or if the National Bureau of Economic Research officially announces a recession occurred during that period. It settles by January 31, 2027.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 10% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $1.7M |
| Resolves by | 2027-01-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Quarterly GDP reports from the BEA between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 will directly determine whether the technical recession threshold is crossed.
- Any official recession announcement by NBER before the January 2027 deadline would settle the question immediately, regardless of the GDP-based criterion.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
