Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
82%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
No change to Fed rates after July 2026 is strongly favoured, around four-in-five, reflecting broad market expectation of a hold at that meeting. The odds fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest shifts toward the possibility of a rate move, though the high baseline probability remains stable. At this level, traders are pricing in a scenario where the Fed maintains its policy stance through mid-2026.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve's July 2026 FOMC meeting results in no change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate compared to its level before that meeting; it resolves No if any change occurs. The resolution date is July 29, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 82% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -4 pt |
| 7d change | -8 pt |
| Market volume | $12.9M |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-29 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Economic data and inflation reports between now and July 2026 could shift expectations about Fed action; significant surprises in either direction would move the odds.
- Any official Fed communication or guidance about policy intentions in that period may reset the probability as traders adjust to new forward guidance.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
