Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
82%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five that the Fed will hold rates across all three decisions. The odds fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest erosion in confidence that all three pauses will occur, though the probability remains very high. A reading this elevated implies traders see rate cuts or hikes as unlikely in this window, but the recent downward drift hints at growing uncertainty about whether every single meeting will result in a pause.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes to pause (hold rates steady) at all three of its upcoming meetings: April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29. It resolves No if the Fed raises or cuts rates at any of these three meetings.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 82% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -3 pt |
| 7d change | -8 pt |
| Market volume | $182K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-29 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- FOMC communications and economic data (inflation, employment, growth) between now and each meeting could shift expectations for any of the three decisions.
- A single rate move by the Fed at any of the three meetings would flip the outcome to No, so market odds are sensitive to shifts in Fed guidance closer to each date.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
