Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
89%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
NVIDIA is heavily favoured, near-certain to hold the top spot by July 31, 2026, with an implied probability of about nine in ten. The market rose notably (+5 pts) in the past day, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome, though the longer-term move upward of 7 points over a week suggests sustained bullish momentum rather than a sudden shift.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if NVIDIA has the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company as of market close on July 31, 2026, determined by consensus of credible reporting. It resolves No if another company holds that position.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 89% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +5 pt |
| 7d change | +7 pt |
| Market volume | $943K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in NVIDIA's valuation or earnings outlook, or unexpected gains in rival firms' market caps, could alter the odds before the resolution date.
- Since resolution hinges on a single snapshot on July 31, 2026, significant market movements in the months immediately before that date would be most consequential.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
