Fed rate hike in 2026?
50%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once during 2026, with current odds suggesting roughly even chances either way.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 50% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | -5 pt |
| Market volume | $3.6M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-09 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.