Will the Miami Marlins have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
33%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices Miami's chances at about a third, having risen sharply (+31 pts) in the past day. This represents a meaningful shift upward in confidence that the Marlins will lead baseball in challenge success, though the probability still suggests most of the field is expected to outperform them on this metric over the season.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Miami Marlins record the highest ABS (challenge) success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season, measured by challenge-won percentage. Tiebreakers favor the team with more total challenges won, then alphabetical order by team name, and it settles by October 11, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 33% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +31 pt |
| 7d change | -14 pt |
| Market volume | $93K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-11 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Marlins' actual challenge-win rate during the 2026 season; a notably strong or weak performance relative to other teams will move odds as data accumulates.
- Late-season performances by competing teams; any team running an exceptionally high challenge success rate could displace Miami and reverse recent gains.
- Time before October 11 settlement is fixed; the probability will solidify once the regular season concludes and final statistics are recorded.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.