Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
61%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome as a slight favourite, just over even, reflecting uncertainty about the race roughly fifteen months away. Prices fell slightly over the past day, though they held flat over the week, suggesting modest daily noise in a relatively stable view of his chances.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026, including any second round. If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 61% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $7.3M |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-04 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any major shift in Brazilian economic conditions or political developments before the election could move odds sharply.
- Delays in declaring a winner past the June 30, 2027 deadline would trigger resolution to Other, an outcome the market currently prices as unlikely.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
