Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently prices JD Vance's chances at roughly one-in-four odds, with the odds unchanged over the past day and down slightly over the past week. This reflects a relatively long-shot positioning compared to the baseline probability of any single candidate winning, but still a meaningful chance given the distance to the election.
How this market resolves
This market resolves to Yes if JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election held on November 7, 2028, as determined by a call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all naming the same candidate. It resolves No if another candidate wins.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 20% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $14.6M |
| Resolves by | 2028-11-07 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in political developments or candidate positioning between now and November 2028 could move these odds significantly in either direction.
- The extended time until the November 7, 2028 resolution date means odds have substantial room to adjust based on new information and campaign dynamics.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
