Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
59%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently prices the Democratic candidate as a slight favourite, just over even at 59%. The odds have remained unchanged over the past 24 hours and 7 days, suggesting stable sentiment toward the outcome at this stage. This level reflects genuine uncertainty about the election result, with neither party decisively favoured.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party's presidential candidate wins the 2028 US Presidential Election on November 7, 2028, as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 59% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $833K |
| Resolves by | 2028-11-07 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in candidate announcements, endorsements, or economic conditions could move odds significantly in either direction before November 2028.
- With substantial time remaining before the election date, odds may drift considerably as campaign events unfold and voter preferences crystallize.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
