Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
62%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market currently prices this outcome as better than even, favoured at about three-in-five, reflecting meaningful confidence that Santos will finish third. The probability rose slightly over the past day, while declining modestly over the week, suggesting recent modest momentum toward Yes despite some longer-term softening.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Renan Santos receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026. Ties in valid votes will be broken according to the market's tiebreaker rules.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 62% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $135K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-04 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- The final candidate lineup and polling shifts before October 2026 could reshape Santos's positioning relative to other contenders.
- Official election results on October 4, 2026 will determine the exact ranking by valid votes cast.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
