Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
11%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
Brazil's 2026 presidential election typically requires a runoff unless one candidate gets over 50% of valid votes; current odds suggest such a first-round majority remains unlikely.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 11% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -3 pt |
| 7d change | -4 pt |
| Market volume | $84K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-04 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.