Trump out as President before 2027?
8%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, implying strong consensus that Trump remains in office through the end of 2026. Over the past week, the probability has moved up by roughly 1 percentage point, suggesting a marginal shift in expectations but no fundamental repricing of the core scenario.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Donald Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be President of the United States at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline triggers immediate Yes resolution.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 8% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $9.8M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Any official announcement of resignation or removal would immediately settle the market to Yes; absent such a formal statement, the outcome depends on events over the next two years.
- With the deadline set for end of 2026, traders have time to adjust positions if political or legal developments alter the calculus, though the single-digit level reflects current baseline expectations of continuity.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
