ELECTIONS
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
19%
Trajectory (1y → today), from Polymarket price history
Context
This asks whether California's governor will secure the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nomination, with current odds suggesting significant uncertainty about his path to the nomination.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 19% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $26.3M |
| Resolves by | 2028-11-07 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-06 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.