Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
97%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The Swedish Social Democratic Party is heavily favoured, near-certain to win the most seats, with an implied probability of 97%. The market has remained unchanged over 24 hours and flat over 7 days, indicating stable confidence among traders that the party will secure a plurality in the upcoming election.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Swedish Social Democratic Party wins the greatest number of seats in the Riksdag in the September 13, 2026 parliamentary election. It resolves No if another party wins the most seats, or to Other if voting does not occur by December 31, 2026.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 97% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $76K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-13 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in domestic political conditions or polling could move odds before September 2026, though the market's stability suggests few traders expect significant change.
- Any delay to the election date or unexpected postponement beyond the December 31, 2026 deadline would trigger resolution to Other rather than Yes or No.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
