Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
95%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
United Russia is heavily favoured, near-certain to win the most seats, with the market pricing this at 95%. The odds fell slightly over the past day, suggesting modest erosion in confidence, though the probability remains very high. This level reflects the party's dominant position in recent Russian parliamentary outcomes.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if United Russia wins the most seats in the Russian parliamentary election scheduled for September 2026, and No otherwise. If definitive results are not known by September 30, 2027, the market resolves to Other.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 95% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -1 pt |
| 7d change | +1 pt |
| Market volume | $627K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official results from the September 2026 election will determine the outcome; any uncertainty or dispute over seat counts could delay resolution until the 2027 deadline.
- Major political shifts or changes to electoral rules between now and the election could alter expectations, though significant time remains before the vote.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
