Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
55%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing United Russia's chances at roughly even odds of winning the most seats. The probability has moved down slightly over the past week, suggesting modest weakening of confidence in that outcome, though the market remained unchanged in the last 24 hours. At this level, the market sees the result as genuinely uncertain, neither heavily favored nor a long shot.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if United Russia wins the most seats in the Russian parliamentary election scheduled for September 2026, compared to the distribution before that election. If final results are not known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 55% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -2 pt |
| Market volume | $5.6M |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-30 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Official election results certified by Russian authorities will directly settle the market; any ambiguity or dispute over final seat counts could push resolution toward Other if clarity is not reached by the September 2027 deadline.
- The roughly year-long window before the election leaves ample time for political or economic shifts to move odds in either direction; any major policy announcements or shifts in party positioning could trigger repricing.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
