Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
2%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices CDU's chances of winning the most seats at a remote chance, with odds unchanged over the past day and down slightly over the week. This very low probability suggests traders view CDU as a long shot to lead in seat count in this election.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if the CDU wins the most seats in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election scheduled for September 6, 2026, and No otherwise. If the election does not occur by January 31, 2027, the market will resolve according to the platform's standard rules for unresolved events.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 2% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $495K |
| Resolves by | 2026-09-06 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Election timing: if voting is delayed past January 31, 2027, resolution rules may shift.
- Polling and campaign developments between now and the September 2026 election could move odds, though time and current positioning limit large swings.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
