Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
24%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This asks whether Republicans will lose enough Senate seats in 2026 to fall below 48 seats; the current odds suggest most expect them to maintain or grow their majority.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 24% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $155K |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.