Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting a low consensus that Putin will leave office by the end of 2026. The probability has moved down 3 points over the past week, suggesting traders have recently grown slightly more confident he will remain in the role through the resolution date. At this implied probability level, the market treats such a change in leadership as a rare event within the timeframe.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia at any point before December 31, 2026, including if his resignation or removal is announced before that date. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 9% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -3 pt |
| Market volume | $16.9M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An announcement of resignation or removal would immediately settle the market to Yes, regardless of effective date.
- As the December 2026 deadline approaches, the window for this outcome narrows; any major political or geopolitical shift could shift pricing, though time already constrains the odds.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
