Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
38%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at a bit below even, reflecting skepticism that Powell will depart the Board within the next two years. The probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting recent sentiment has tilted marginally against an exit; over the broader week the decline is more pronounced, indicating a consistent downward drift in removal expectations.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Jerome Powell leaves the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any point before December 31, 2026, and No if he remains on the Board through that date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 38% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -2 pt |
| 7d change | -5 pt |
| Market volume | $140K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Powell's health, retirement announcements, or formal resignation would resolve the market immediately; any official statement about his Board tenure would be decisive.
- With nearly two years until the deadline, there is ample time for political or economic developments to shift expectations, though the current trajectory implies market participants see continuation as more likely.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
