Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
3%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing a remote chance at 3%, reflecting very low odds that the current Taiwan President leaves office within the specified timeframe. The probability has remained unchanged over the past 24 hours and declined slightly by 1 percentage point over the past week, suggesting steady confidence in his continued tenure through the end-of-year deadline.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan at any point before December 31, 2026, including via resignation or removal announced before that date. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 3% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $104K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement of resignation or removal would immediately trigger a Yes resolution, even if the departure date falls after 2026.
- The fixed December 31, 2026 deadline limits time for major political developments to occur; movement in the probability would likely follow concrete news about political instability or health issues.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
