Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
82%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is strongly favoured, around four-in-five that Sulyok will exit office within the timeframe. Odds rose slightly over the past day, though they have risen substantially over the past week—a move of 37 points suggests a meaningful shift in how traders are assessing the likelihood of his departure. At this level, traders are pricing in a significant probability that he will leave, though not a near-certainty.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Tamas Sulyok ceases to be President of Hungary at any point between market creation and July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before the close date will resolve it to Yes immediately, regardless of the effective date.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 82% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +4 pt |
| 7d change | +37 pt |
| Market volume | $92K |
| Resolves by | 2026-07-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement of resignation or removal would settle the market immediately to Yes; otherwise, confirmation of his continued tenure through July 31, 2026 would resolve it No.
- The long timeline to close date means further news or political developments in Hungary could shift odds further before then.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
