Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
10%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing this outcome at odds in the teens (unlikely), reflecting a low probability that the sitting president leaves office within the timeframe. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day, suggesting stable trader conviction on this outcome despite recent moves of -1 point over the week.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, including via resignation or removal. Otherwise it resolves No.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 10% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $2.6M |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An announced resignation or removal would immediately settle the market to Yes; domestic political developments in Ukraine could shift views on succession risk.
- With nearly two years until the December 2026 deadline, significant time remains for events to alter the probability, though current pricing reflects skepticism of near-term departure.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
