Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
6%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome at single-digit, unlikely odds, reflecting a strong consensus that Milei will serve through 2026. The probability has remained unchanged over the past week, suggesting stable market conviction around this assessment. At this level, the market sees removal or resignation as a distant possibility rather than an imminent risk.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Javier Milei ceases to be President of Argentina at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET—including if his resignation or removal is announced before that date, even if it takes effect later. It resolves No if he remains in office through the deadline.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 6% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +0 pt |
| Market volume | $161K |
| Resolves by | 2026-12-31 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- An official announcement of resignation or removal would trigger immediate resolution to Yes, regardless of the effective date.
- Significant political or economic developments in Argentina could shift the odds, though time remaining before end of 2026 may limit how far sentiment can move.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
