Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
50%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market is pricing Milei's chances at roughly even odds, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the outcome. His probability fell slightly over the past day, suggesting a modest shift in sentiment, though the one-week move was minimal. At this level, the market sees the race as genuinely competitive.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Javier Milei wins the Argentina presidential election scheduled for October 24, 2027, including any potential second round. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, the market resolves to Other.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 50% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | -2 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $83K |
| Resolves by | 2027-10-24 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in Argentine economic conditions or political developments before the election could move odds in either direction.
- Clarity on candidate lineups and primary results closer to October 2027 may narrow the range of uncertainty.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
