Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices Renan Santos's chances at a remote chance, reflecting very low expectations that he will win the first round. The odds have remained unchanged over the past day, though they have shifted up slightly by 2 points over the week, suggesting modest erosion of confidence in other frontrunners rather than any major movement toward him.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Renan Santos receives the highest percentage of valid votes in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026. The margin of victory is defined as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the top two candidates.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 3% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0 pt |
| 7d change | +2 pt |
| Market volume | $209K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-04 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Candidate registration and campaign announcements in the lead-up to the election could alter perceptions of the field and Renan Santos's relative standing.
- Polling data or major political developments could shift market pricing, though the tight timeframe before the October 4, 2026 vote limits how much odds can move from current levels.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.