Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
92%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
What the market is pricing
The market prices this outcome as heavily favoured, near-certain at 92%, reflecting strong confidence in a de Freitas victory. The probability rose slightly (+1 pts) over the past day, though it declined marginally over the week, suggesting modest underlying stability in the market view despite minor daily fluctuations. At this level, the market is pricing only a small chance of an upset.
How this market resolves
This market resolves Yes if Tarcísio de Freitas wins the São Paulo gubernatorial election scheduled for October 4, 2026, or the runoff on October 25, 2026 if one occurs. Interim or temporary governors appointed before the election are not counted as winners.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 92% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +1 pt |
| 7d change | -1 pt |
| Market volume | $92K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-04 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-10 |
What could move it
- Major shifts in São Paulo political dynamics or candidate endorsements between now and October 2026 could alter the trajectory.
- A runoff scenario (if no majority emerges in the first round on October 4) would extend the resolution window to October 25 and could create new opportunity for odds to move.
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.
