Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
95%
Real price history (past month), from Polymarket. Down-sampled to 24 points.
Context
This question asks whether the current São Paulo governor will win reelection in 2026, with the current odds suggesting he faces minimal competitive threat.
| Implied probability (Yes) | 95% |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +2 pt |
| 7d change | +5 pt |
| Market volume | $78K |
| Resolves by | 2026-10-04 |
| Source | Polymarket ↗ · as of 2026-07-07 |
This is an implied probability from a real-money prediction market (Polymarket), shown as information — not a forecast we endorse and not financial or trading advice. Markets can be thin or move fast; always check the source. Odds ≠ advice.